El Nino’s intensifying pattern has significantly disrupted India’s monsoon season, leading to deficient rainfall and rising food prices nationwide. The climate phenomenon has affected global production of key commodities like coffee, vegetables, and meat, driving up costs. This report examines the meteorological factors, price impacts, and outlook for the coming weeks.
Monsoon Rainfall Deficit
From June to September, India received 13% below-normal rainfall, totaling 759.4 millimeters against the long-term average of 868.6 millimeters. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) classified this as the fourth weakest monsoon since 2001. El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean strengthened during this period, directly influencing the rainfall shortfall.
Global Food Prices Surge
El Nino-triggered weather extremes-drought, record heat, and excessive rainfall-have boosted prices for coffee, meat, vegetables, potatoes, and seaweed worldwide. In India, green vegetables and legumes have become many times more expensive, while tomatoes rose 31% compared to July levels. Brazil’s coffee output suffered, the US Great Plains faced severe drought, and heavy rainfall in Britain caused waterlogging that harmed livestock farming.
Persistent Price Pressures
A new report by Zero Carbon Analytics indicates that shifting weather patterns are converting temporary food shortages into prolonged high-price situations. The report includes a price increase map based on 16 cases from an academic study methodology, plus 12 additional cases added post-2024. This map shows deviations from normal weather and corresponding actual price rises for food items.
Outlook and Monsoon Withdrawal
IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for October, with expected precipitation around 85% of the long-term average of 75.4 millimeters. The monsoon has already retreated from Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi, parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. Conditions for withdrawal remain favorable in the first week of October across central and northwest India.
Commodity-Specific Impacts
Tomato prices in India have surged 31% month-on-month due to crop damage from unseasonal rains. Coffee futures have risen as Brazilian plantations face heat stress and drought. Vegetable oils and pulses are also under upward pressure as export restrictions and climate concerns tighten global supplies. Livestock feed costs have increased owing to damaged fodder crops, indirectly raising meat prices.
